Analysts predict that gold and silver prices may consolidate or correct slightly in the upcoming Christmas week. Investors are adopting a cautious stance ahead of crucial US economic releases, while low trading volumes during the year-end holidays are likely to cap major price swings.
Key upcoming US data points, including GDP figures, housing market indicators, core durable goods orders, and consumer confidence, will play a significant role in directing global precious metals trends.
Holiday Season to Bring Subdued Activity and Potential Volatility
Pranav Mer, Vice President of Commodity and Currency Research at JM Financial Services Ltd, highlighted the impact of the holidays:
“Moving into the Christmas week, traders expect some consolidation/correction in the markets as volumes are expected to remain low with major traders staying away due to the long weekend starting late on Wednesday. However, volatility/price swings may be higher due to low participation.”
Global markets are poised for quieter trading as participants step back for Christmas and New Year celebrations.
Recent Performance: Strong Weekly Gains for Both Metals
Over the past week:
- Gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) climbed by ₹574 per 10 grams (0.43%), reaching an all-time high of ₹1,35,590 per 10 grams on Thursday.
- Internationally, Comex gold futures advanced by $59 (1.36%).
Pankaj Singh, Founder and Principal Researcher at SmartWealth.AI, noted the sustained momentum:
“Gold futures advanced modestly across domestic and international exchanges this week, extending an unusually persistent rally. This marks the fourth consecutive weekly increase in MCX gold futures, keeping prices on track for a twelfth successive month of gains—a rarity in modern bullion markets.”
Prathamesh Mallya, DVP-Research (Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies) at Angel One, attributed domestic gains to rupee depreciation, while global strength stemmed from a weaker US dollar, dovish Federal Reserve signals, a recent 25-basis-point rate cut, and expectations of further easing in 2026.
Singh added that the current gold rally resembles rare historical surges seen only twice in the past five decades, during periods of intense monetary and geopolitical stress.
Silver Outperforms with Sharp Rally
Silver has shone brighter this year, posting its fourth straight week of strong gains. On MCX, silver futures surged ₹15,588 per kilogram (8.08%), hitting a lifetime peak of ₹2,08,603 per kg on Friday before minor profit-taking.
Mer pointed to ongoing ETF inflows and concerns over potential unwinding of yen carry trades following the Bank of Japan’s anticipated rate hike as supporting factors.
Analysts expect silver’s outperformance to continue into 2026, though a near-term pause is possible alongside gold.
Outlook: Bullish Tone Persists Despite Short-Term Breather
As 2025 ends, the overall sentiment for precious metals remains positive, driven by expectations of global monetary easing and currency weaknesses. However, short-term corrections or consolidation appear likely due to seasonal factors and upcoming data.
Investors are advised to monitor US economic indicators closely, as they could either reinforce the bullish narrative or trigger renewed caution.
